Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

you...

Does anyone have any thoughts about holding AMD through earnings announcement?

What will Spansion's IPO do to AMD revenue numbers? Will the street see the lower amount and take it as a disappointment?

me...

As far as Spansion goes, I'm not sure about how AMD is going to report, but the effect should be to reduce AMD's earnings liability by their reduced ownership. This is good while SPSN is losing money, but cuts the other way as soon as it becomes profitable. The net effect on earnings should be relatively minor, unless they decide to do a quarter shift in earnings recognition. I'm not up on the FASB rules for handling this sort of situation, but the most reasonable scenario seems like a proration of earnings based on time of ownership, but I don't know. Is there an accountant/CPA on board?

AMD is fully valued it you compare its' price to INTC's. New AMD investors seem to be betting on the come. My gut says the market is expecting AMD to at least equal INTC's earnings, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, but does involve a certain leap of faith. The tiebreakers are going to be the CC, and general market conditions. Personally, I haven't traded AMD for well over a year now, for the same reason I don't play in the options market, I just don't have no rhythm. But then that's just me; there have definitely been opportunities to trade AMD during the last year or so.

The real problem with AMD's earnings at this point is their unpredictability. As I've said before, earnings are not a good indicator of a company’s health at turning points, on either the way up or down. After a nadir, good companies have so many things to do with the added revenues that expenses can easily eat up added revenues. AMD may be in that position for a few more quarters. Of course the market only looks at the bottom line and doesn't consider the future payback of the investments. Revenues are a better thing to look at in such circumstances, as they are more likely to reflect the true health of the company.

Anyway, I'll probably just hold on and hope for the best with a long-term view towards the future. Until the fundamentals change I'm probably going to just stay where I am.