FNMA thoughts: I just finished watching a movie about Texas Western, the team that won the NCAA basketball championship against Kentucky in 1966. I grew up in El Paso, and I remember the team coming home victorious to the airport - the first all black team.
People said it was the greatest upset in a championship game, but that was just conventional wisdom. The Miners were 29-1 that season, same as Kentucky. They won because they were a better team.
Canonero II won the 1971 Kentucky Derby as the greatest unknown to ever win, and conventional wisdom said it was the greatest upset ever. Canonero II came back and won the Preakness two weeks later. He won because he was the best horse.
David beat Goliath and conventional wisdom said it was the greatest upset ever in a fight, but David won because he was the best warrior. Goliath never had a chance against a fast moving kid with a deadly sling.
It's the same here. Conventional wisdom will say FNMA doesn't have a chance, but FNMA will survive and thrive and come out stronger because they're the best thing we've got going in a UNIQUE situation.
I've traded in most of these same situations. Bought 90,000 HealthSouth shares after an accounting scandal in 2002 for .08 per share and it hit $6.40 a share six months later. They were sitting on a pile of cash and everybody wanted to squash commons, they weren't able to do it. HLS is back on the NYSE and was $32 a share today.
We've all been through it, conventional wisdom is often wrong, and when it is wrong, it is usually wrong big because it sees and accepts only the obvious outward show of a given situation and fails to really look at the UNIQUE qualities of a UNIQUE situation.
Its why shorts are getting burned in TESLA, because conventional wisdom is treating it as a start-up CAR company and its really a UNIQUE technology company, and conventional wisdom just can't see it.
Hold on to your shares and accumulate here - be unshakable in your faith - that's my UNCONVENTIONAL opinion based on long years of experience and observation.
MB
