Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Airedale, regarding the Fed and the cycles. Itis interesting that the cycles existed prior to the Fed, but I doubt you would deny that the Fed has the power to put the economy and the markets straight into the crapper. To send the market into a tailspin, it would only need to raise the interest rates 1/2 basis point at the end of January. If that didn't work, twice more should finish the job. The divergence from market expectations and Greenspan's gentle increases would create panic.

If there is indeed a correlation between FOMC activities and the stock markets--and many charts indicate there is--it could influence our opinion concerning the cycles and expectations concerning market direction.

A bullish move up is not always a long-term bullish signal. While I definitely want to trade the charts, I find it helpful to not always swallow the bait hook, line, and sinker. By questioning what I see, I cast a wider net for evidence and often see the market turns sooner than I would otherwise.

Thanks to all for a good discussion.

BB