Have done some rather extensive further research on NMGC this week-end. As a result, have short term cleared the slate of any buy orders--including FASC. Have just placed another 200 share margin buy order on NMGC at 9.50--anticipating a dip.
Some interesting statistics:
1. On December 9th with the announcement of the .12 earnings - first positive earnings since about 2000--the stock traded 25,350,000 shares.
2. This was an astounding 940 times the volume of the average of 26,950 shares of the six trading days (Nov 30 - Dec 6th) just preceding this blockbuster announcement.
3. Assuming roughly 255 trading days per year, this represented over 3 1/2 years of trading in one single day! An almost unbelievable event.
4. It took an additional 8 trading days after the December 9th announcement to digest the increase in price on that one day from $3.80 to 8.68. A $10,000 position in NMGC on December 8th was worth $22,842 the next day.
5. Following this digestion, and starting with December 31st close as a base, the daily closing price changes from then until the present have been--in sequence--+94, +.35, +.58, +.22, same,
-.44 (Dec 30th, last trading day of year),+.58, +.20, -.19 and +1.12.
6. Although in a slight downtrend, the daily trading volume average for the last 10 days is still well over a million shares a day as compared to 27,000 share average prior to the announcement. We essentially have a new stock from the investors point of view.
7. With all previous negative Q's--roughly in a minus .50 to a minus 1.75 per Q going back to 2000, it is hard to establish a PE ratio. Going back to 1997-1999, a tight range was 17 to 22. My own projections--assuming no new news announcements, are short term in the 15 to $18 range with 18 being my initial target.
8. The $6,000,000 Sony one time licensing contract, which created all the excitement, and brought about the .12 Q, is now a negotiating instrument with other companies. On the conference call management indicated that subsequent contracts are likely to be larger than the Sony one. Several are in negotiations right now. It was indicated they would most likely be finalized during 2nd fiscal Q--or roughly May 1st--August 1st. If two contracts get completed, I see a stock in the $50 range.
9. Institutional and other sharp investors are seeing this now. Very volatile stock, and there man be some roller coaster rides, but this will now likely be a margin hold for me, with a lot of slack in my cash reserves to "ride the waves".
10. Once I establish my final margin position, it will be back to FASC as my first standing buy order. Very bullish also on TDYH and GDTI. With TDYH I see this as a hold until at least 2008. With GDTI, I might sell into a large US order--which may come down the road after one or two other nations-- Russia, China, Mexico, etc.--place orders. Waitedg
