Short Term Trading Member Forum

[airedale88]

bliss, .."my scenario of a "1987 style crash" climaxing on Jan 16th occurs, both the nominal 80 wk cycle and the nominal 40 wk cycle will be right in line with recent samples...'

well, if you want to add one week from the 12/30/05-1/3/06 low (depending on the index) to have a crash occur to make a 74 wk cycle rather than a 73wk i think it's a big stretch. all cycles of the hurst nominal model have gradually been shrinking in length so a 73 wk and 36 wk 80 and 40 cycle fits right in. the other point would be that recent samples of the smaller harmonic cycles called for a low right at the end of the yr and judging from the upthrust this week i'm convinced we saw it. out of thirty plus sectors i looked at a majority just made new multi yr highs and quite a few more are very close. if the 80 wk cycle has not bottomed yet i would expect to see more sector weakness rather than a new burst of strength. i'm actually a little pissed at myself because originally i had posted some time ago that the bottom could be the last day or two of december/1st day or two of january and i should have been quicker to react.