Of course one may call this speculation. I prefer to call it an educated guess speculation for my own money and, as such, I personally believe that history will prove the Bristol porphyry to be one of the largest gold finds in Canada. But that is me and that is my money.
Something to consider. History very well might outlive your money, or rather its speculative use.
BTW, thanks for reminding me that I had read your post accurately.
Instead of guessing, I prefer to derisk where I invest or speculate by approaching current fact as far as is possible and by bracketing upside/downside range where this is not very possible.
Again, if you can present information that indicates the change in model has had the impact you state, causing what would have been a 3 million ounce estimate update get changed to a sub-million estimate, I would be glad to review that information. My own opinion is that without the change in cut-off and model, i.e. using the same playing field as in the prior estimate, the drill work new to that update would have fallen far short of 3 million, probably even a little short of the target of 1.5 million for that estimate update. (the 3 million target was one or two updates after the one where the model changed the first time). From what you have said you are seeing consistency of intercepts between the holes, which is precisely what I would like to be, but am not, seeing. Even the wedging around hole #30 that attempted to find the path of the 130+ g/t intercept could not indicate continuity.
You said
Given that we also have a North Limb that has shown even higher grades at shallow depths than the South limb I cut the fraction in two to get 1/20th.
but it seems that would lead one to double the length, not halve it. Do you have a reference for where those north limb shallow intercepts were reported?
As for the 43-101 there has not been a full 43-101 since the first one that was issued. Nor do I expect to see one until Explor hits 1.3 to 1.4 or possibly 1.5 million ounces in the indicated and inferred categories.
and
if the calculations continued to be based in the way that they were in that 1rst and only full 43-101 then the 3 million oz would have been achievable by end of 2013
There can be only one NI 43-101 report current for a property at any time. An NI 43-101 report meets the definition and is a complete (full) report. To update the resource estimate in a report the report is updated, and the updated report replaces the prior report. It is a full, but updated report. All that is not redone, and is not rejected or modified, continues and is the responsibility of the qualified geologist even if different from the prior qualified geologist. The only way as far as I can tell that there can be a shortcut to change an NI 43-101 (the closest thing I can figure to your "not full") is by the amendment process that can only be used when there is a material change to the information in a report that is included after the report is announced but included before the report is filed.
Now, the 6th phase drill program (the shallow, pit exploration) was announced in Jan 2013. As far as I can see there have been 4 NRs reporting drill results. For your convenience I have attached these reported intercepts at the end of this post. There is precious little reported above 200 m depth. Hole 109 is moving toward what is needed, but 109 still averages only 0.138 g/t over 360 meters (why is that a valid view? try running a big scoop loader and picking off some contoured layer 1.5 meters thick leaving the rest behind; or the time in not just treating large depths as waste and larger blocks as worth the effort).
If your conjecture that the update's estimate covers 100 meters of strike, and the first minable intercept is at 150 or 200 meters, that would mean the surface length of the pit along that line would be 400 or 500 meters if a very steep average 45 degree wall slope (used for simplicity to avoid trigonometry, so slope is likely needed more gentle and length greater). Do you realize how much waste removal that is talking about ? Here, review the intercepts all collected together.
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