Thursday, August 29, 2013 2:28:15 PM
No problem JD, have sort of wondered if any others see more than some crack theory, not necessarily aligned to or even flying in the face of technicals.
I must admit, one can look at the .3-.4 and .7-.8 and say, well doh! that is 40% of the tenth, dime bumps, so what is the raw probability. I was there once some time back.
Fact is however, price action is usually bounded by two of the 8 in a range band, with motions fairly direct or jagged and wandering between them, and then maybe 3 or 4, sometimes even 5 (of the 8 out of 20 dime points) when transitioning to a different pair for a while. Now 2 out of 20 is a thin probability to see repeatedly.
This over time lead me to the thesis of programmatic settings.
Look at today's chart
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
after NY open silver bounces off 24.4 then off 23.8, staking out (for now) more or less the centroid of A range.
IMO there is now both strong pressure up for Ag, and strong resistance over loss of the 60:1 and higher Au/Ag ratio for Au level, and these are compounded by seasonal changes both in the jewelry/retail (Au and Ag) and industrial (mostly Ag) segments, and these are now being "itched" by the fact that silver's often exaggerated volatility from uncertainty surpasses gold's volatility both of which are coming into play. To me it is remarkable things have acted so normal, in the pattern of consolidating a floor at A base. Higher volatility times are also ripe for major range changes.
Call this post just a bit of getting used to how the hair on the hare feels
Hopefully the thesis that fields in some algorithms are operative, and their values, continues on. Just watch the daily/nightly motion, and it becomes clear how the price, whether moving fairly directly or very jagged and wandering, hits against or pauses and/or reverses near/at a couple of the .3,.4,.7,.8, within a few cents or nickle, whenever it is not in a larger move between the major ranges.
It seems to be a furry beast, but the hair has a texture one can come to recognize.
All JMO and if history presages future.
I must admit, one can look at the .3-.4 and .7-.8 and say, well doh! that is 40% of the tenth, dime bumps, so what is the raw probability. I was there once some time back.
Fact is however, price action is usually bounded by two of the 8 in a range band, with motions fairly direct or jagged and wandering between them, and then maybe 3 or 4, sometimes even 5 (of the 8 out of 20 dime points) when transitioning to a different pair for a while. Now 2 out of 20 is a thin probability to see repeatedly.
This over time lead me to the thesis of programmatic settings.
Look at today's chart
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
after NY open silver bounces off 24.4 then off 23.8, staking out (for now) more or less the centroid of A range.
IMO there is now both strong pressure up for Ag, and strong resistance over loss of the 60:1 and higher Au/Ag ratio for Au level, and these are compounded by seasonal changes both in the jewelry/retail (Au and Ag) and industrial (mostly Ag) segments, and these are now being "itched" by the fact that silver's often exaggerated volatility from uncertainty surpasses gold's volatility both of which are coming into play. To me it is remarkable things have acted so normal, in the pattern of consolidating a floor at A base. Higher volatility times are also ripe for major range changes.
Call this post just a bit of getting used to how the hair on the hare feels
Hopefully the thesis that fields in some algorithms are operative, and their values, continues on. Just watch the daily/nightly motion, and it becomes clear how the price, whether moving fairly directly or very jagged and wandering, hits against or pauses and/or reverses near/at a couple of the .3,.4,.7,.8, within a few cents or nickle, whenever it is not in a larger move between the major ranges.
It seems to be a furry beast, but the hair has a texture one can come to recognize.
All JMO and if history presages future.
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