Integrated Healthcare Holdings Inc (fka IHCH)

[dannol48]

IHCH Admissions Decline Update

Here is some data to help understand my concern over the decline in admissions and its impact on valuation and forward look on the changes with Obamacare. The numbers are directly from the Annual and most recent quarter report (in thousands):

FY2006 - 27.5* - Baseline post acquisition by IHCH from Tenet Healthcare
FY2007 - 27.8
FY2008 - 28.0 - Peak Admissions prior to onset of Great Recession
FY2009 - 26.8 - Bankrupcty Filed in Fall
FY2010 - 25.6 - Emerged from Bankrupcty with Chaudhuri recognized ownership in common majority and super-majority fully diluted at 7 cents
FY2011 - 23.1 - 9.7% drop
FY2012 - 21.3 - 7.8% drop
FY2013 - 20.2 - 5.2% drop

2014Q1 - 4.7 - Drop of 7.8% for Q1 compared to 5.1 in Q1 of 2013

*Note: The FY2006 number is derived from the FY2007 10-K report from the statement "Inpatient admissions increased only slightly by 1.1% to 27,806 in the year ended March 31, 2007."

If rate for FY2014 remains at current trend, the full year may operate at 18.7 (estimated). That estimate puts the decline since FY2008 at over 33%.

A bottom to the decline is still not in evidence and current/future CMS policy and impact of Obamacare is placing added doubt on admissions trend (IMO).