you...
As for the current supposed supply "problems", I worry a lot more about H1 demand. Can AMD win enough accounts to sell out their available capacity?
Me...
Well, I really can't say. I expect you’re a lot closer to the supply channels than I am. All I do is read a lot and try to make sense of it all. However, there are a couple of considerations:
First, ever since the introduction of the Opteron, despite huge increases in capacity, there has never been a corresponding increase in inventory. How well one can extrapolate those results with the additional capacity fab36 will provide is anyone’s guess. But given the way AMD has managed the capacity issue for the last year or so I'm inclined to believe that they will increase capacity with increases in demand. At least they are now in charge of the capacity issue rather than being a slave to it. Of course this then implies increasing demand from the OEMs. One of the things I'm extremely interested in is how many projects were put on the back burner because AMD couldn't promise adequate supplies. Personally, I think there are a lot of things in the pipeline that will only start showing up in h206, but then that's my gut talking again. But discounting any new products that may lie ahead, there is still plenty of room for AMD growth in the server and laptop areas with existing products. In short I expect AMD to continue gaining market share against INTC, probably at an accelerating rate, over at least the short term.
2ndly, as I posted yesterday the demand for "Smart Silicon" isn't going to decrease any. In fact I expect a period of strong demand as the PC morphs into a more friendly entertainment oriented device for the home. Further, I expect other areas to take on more importance as "Silicon Smarts" become more pervasive. Just from a productivity point of view the demand for smarter devices, to replace costly human labor, is going to grow. Also, the demands being placed humans in daily living are only going to continue growing. It scares the hell out of me to be driving down the freeway and have the woman in the car next to me doing her eyebrows with one hand and holding a cell phone in her ear with the other. Because humans are notoriously deficient at repetitive and tedious tasks, the automobile begs for non-human intervention. Transportation is just one area that could use some "Silicon Smarts", but certainly not the only one. In short I see a market demanding more and ever smarter devices that inevitably involve "Smart Silicon". Limiting ones view of AMD or INTC to just PCs is ignoring a much bigger picture that's only now starting to unfold.
