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Very interesting. Statistics that work should be

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bartermania   Saturday, 12/31/05 03:10:55 PM
Re: serfdom post# 60
Post # of 94 
Very interesting. Statistics that work should be considered (and used). So, from when the most recent H.Omen signal cluster occurred...late Sept. 2005...there's an approximately 85% statistical chance that a NYSE decline of around 8% will occur during the next 4 months (the % decline could be more or less than 8% but, a decline of this magnitude is likely...and the time frame for the decline could last up to 122 days from the signals).

Seems possible...and likely. As they say, it appears to statistics based on strong divergence of new highs and new lows in the NYSE. Divergence is a good indication of indecision...so, by using other factors...charts, economic data, commodities prices, inflation, interest rates...and so on...one will likely see that the H. Omen statistics/signals (IMO) have a very good chance of being right again.

We will see.

I found the following site: http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm linked to the one you posted. It's very good too. Talks about long term market cycles...and points toward the year 2007 being a bottom for a 25 year cycle...with a down trend leading up to this likely major bottom.

External events can always affect what happens going forward. I hope for the best...but, I'm quite cynical right now.


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