multiple on a patent portfolio with a shelf life of 2-3 years?
Sorry. That type of thinking doesn't work, and it is also based on misinformation.
1) VHC's settlement with MSFT was for $200 million in May of 2010. That agreement was signed after VHC had won a $105.75 jury award against MSFT and filed a new lawsuit for different products with willful infringement alleged in the complaint.
2) It was not "one-time", considering VHC has recently filed a lawsuit against MSFT for the third time. This latest lawsuit is from April of this year and includes mobile products (which were not part of the previous settlement & license agreement). VHC's licensing opportunity is targeted as the entire 4G wireless manufacturing sector and also secure domain services for network operators and system integrators over the next decade or so. Many years remaining on the opportunity.
3) VRNG is likely to receive a premium for defeating GOOG and earning a sizable royalty going forward. IF they are victorious, the market will assign them a valuation that reflects the company's ability to monetize its IPR going forward -- and undoubtedly this will take into account what targets remain for the internet search & advertising patent portfolio (GOOG and MSFT have been taken care of, who is really left?), as well as the Nokia patent portfolio... which has plenty of time remaining and several target opportunities in addition to ZTE... but is still in search of its first revenues and the ZTE litigation costs are adding up (as it is not cheap to launch a worldwide multi-jurisidictional enforcement campaign against a large adversary).
So a premium for VRNG is a certainty.... a multiple is not. A multiple of "5" is ridiculous, wishful thinking, IMHO.
If the premium assigned to VRNG is substantial it will be based on actual revenue earning opportunities -- not blindly taking the GOOG revenues and using a calculator to type * 5.
