Monday, August 05, 2013 3:38:41 AM
Why would TransCanada risk disrupting production on their commercial pipeline network with a technology they do not yet believe in? To install AOT will presumably require the suspension of their current viscosity reductions applications (i.e. either diluents, Drag Reducing Agents or heat) If AOT does not work TC could lose a lot of money. Even a single day's outage would be extremely expensive
Surely the sensible thing for them to do if they are not yet convinced, would be to take one unit, not four, and install it on a test facility. The RMOTC flow loop with its six inch pipeline may not be large enough for this purpose. But one has to believe that a company with TC's resources could set up an alternative testing site. I would imagine this would be considerably less expensive than the money they might lose from a suspension of production.
The only logical explanation for the lease agreement is that TC already believe in the efficacy of the technology. The pilot program is not to find out whether or not it works. They clearly know it works well enough to replace their existing viscosity reduction applications at a commercial installation.
Apart from gaining a deeper understanding of the technology from an operational perspective, the purpose of the test is surely to discover to what extent it works; i.e. just how much additional revenue they are likely to make from installing it.
You say that you are not buying shares on the basis of this news. If you are not able to take a risk with this amount of supporting information I wonder how you make any money at all.
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