In the last month we've seen something different in the way HIV trades. If you look at a one year chart you won't see support at any level that resembles November to December. During this period the price has remained steady for 37 days. That's twice as long as the other longest support level at .13 to .14 cents. Someone or some people are buying at the bid price of .16 cents. Whoever these people are they represent a change in the near term outlook. If I was to guess their plan, I'd say they want to ride up on the SFDA filing and pull out when it peaks. Whatever they do or don't do after the filing is up to them but to me it represents a belief that money can be made on HIV (something I've beleived for a long time.) I look at it as a turning point and I for one hope they make lots of money. If they do, they will be back and bring more people with them.
I'm looking forward to 2006 as the Company makes progress in China, Africa, Russia and India. The outlook for Incidence is very good and rapid sales will be important numbers to watch as the Company issues quarterly's. The support of Marr has been crucial for us in past years and the recent financing sends a clear message that dilution is not an option. This is vital if they expect to attract new investors.
Management's recent silence represents a shift from the past "will do" statements that had no sustaining power over the price. The market views companies that issue "will do" NR's as pump and dumps with no future. As Calypte focuses on sales and growth, news will be about what was "done" and as a result the price will begin to improve. The products are still new and have to be proven reliable in the market place. OraSure's recent problem in SF, NY and LA is an example of what can happen with any FDA approved product. The Company will need to address this issue in order to relieve any doubts about product reliability.
In my view, the next CC is one of the most important events for the near term. How Roger Gale performs his duties and further news on Incidence, Rapid sales along with new clinicals and approvals are things to watch.
This past year has been a lesson in patience for all of us. Some have finally thrown in the towel and given up moving on to more immediate prospects. Doing homework on any stock is the key to proper decisions. For me it's been the deciding factor to hold my position, especially in light of the change in management, Marr financing and news releases that will focus on past accomplishments.
I believe Calypte has the potential to become one of the biggest winners in HIV/STD diagnostics. The market demand is growing and this problem MUST be addressed by governments. Funding is big now and will continue to be big in the future. The first step in fighting this disease is diagnostics and if Calypte's products prove to be superior and affordable it will be huge for investors.
sower
