Jimmy, let me tell you how i see AIB case. I will start buying shares soon in small tranches. Why: 1. It is a bankrupt bank that will never dissapear. So its share price cannot go much lower. In fact, the worst is over, except for few hiccups between now and October. 2. If you have invested in bonds, consider this stock like a 10 years bond. However, in ten year you will have at least triple the investment. 3. Next year the government will look for international investors. So for the listing, it has to be above 1 EURO. Therefore the government will absorb some losses (reduce stocks) and will try 10:1 (like Unicredit or Commerzbank). Yet before that, there will be a natural appreciation for the future stock listing. But after 10:1 i will short for a month or two (as Unicredit and Commerzbank experience indicates) and then continue holding. 4. The bank's performance is related to real state, which continues 50% under water. Once it reaches 100$, there will be a multiplier effect in bank's assets and consumers' spending, which will accelerate many times the balance sheet. So that is why i will buy this Irish bond that is a share.
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