Simple's Green Room

[simplegreen]

GM guys...yep stk..I'm fully aware of the numbers but love the excellent way you compiled AUDs information..the way I see it AUD needs only a shot in the arm of a continued gold upward move...XAU has completed a major retrace on the weekly and turned north again at 61.8 fib area...now back above 50% line.As far as true valuation on any pairs it seems theres no distinct connection between a nations size and economic health and the exchange rates.If there were a direct connection then I see no way A/U for example would have hit 110+ at peak or 59 or so at bottom.I see it stricly as speculator driven with no regard for a true link between two nations valuation relative to the two currencies involved.One thing I observe is that it seems that the big guns seem to flip a coin or throw a dart at a roster of majors and say Ok..we will stomp the Yen for a few months..or run AUD up for a few months..etc etc.Not all that long back they stomped the Pound...most recently they selected the Euro for a moonshot...before that the Yen had its 1100 or so pip dump against the USD...again..etc etc.Its a game IMO in which fundamentals often seem to be neglected...techs seem to rule the roost with currency exchange rates.
At this moment it seems that Euro is cooling off as far as trashing AUD..also it looks like the Singapore dollar is cooling off against AUD but the Pound is still giving it a hard time...AUD buying against Yen is also taking place.Whether these will continue I cant say...but on an AUD reversal A/J would certainly be the carry trade of choice.
Valuation on equities is a no brainer but valuation on currency exchange rates seems to have no formulas or simple guidelines..at least this seems to me to be the case.Longwinded runs both up and down seem to be purely speculator driven by those with the clout to force the movements.Euro has been having its way with AUD due to a focus on aussies condition while ignoring the EUs problems that are IMO much worse.Guess I'll stop rattling for a while...not sure if I've said anything that makes any sense anyway...need another cup of coffee(LOL)