Note from jpm
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY, Not Covered) reported 2Q13 earnings this morning, disclosing Sprycel gains of 17% in the U.S. and 9% worldwide versus the prior quarter; reiterating Market Outperform rating on ARIAD Pharmaceuticals and $32 price target based on DCF and sum-of-the-parts valuation methodologies. U.S. Sprycel sales of $135MM were up 17% from the previous quarter ($115MM) and up 50% versus the previous year ($90MM). Worldwide Sprycel sales of $312 were 9% higher than the previous quarter ($287MM) and 28% higher the previous year ($244MM). Of note, 2Q13 sequential growth rates were markedly greater than those posted in 1Q13 (17% vs 6% in the U.S. and 9% vs 2% WW), suggesting an increase in CML market share capture. On the conference call, BMY management noted continued first-line growth in all markets and anticipated increasing growth in second-line growth driven by early switching among patients achieving sub-optimal responses at three months, as recommended per NCCN guidelines (a trend that also bodes well for Iclusig in our view). We reaffirm our expectation that 2Q13 Iclusig sales will exceed our estimate of $15.3MM and the Street consensus of $10.4MM. ARIAD report 2Q13 results on Wednesday, August 7 before market open.
