Tornado Alley (PROG)

[My Dime]

Why Are We in Iraq Now?

(David Corn)

Yesterday I taped the weekly television show I usually appear on, Eye on Washington, which airs on the CBS affiliate in Washington, DC, (WUSA, Channel 9) and is picked up by dozens of PBS stations across the nation. When the discussion turned to Iraq, I was, once again, the skunk at the desk. Slate's Will Saletan, conservative columnist Linda Chavez both praised the elections as progress. I cannot recall whether USA Today's Susan Page was cheery about the elections, but she certainly was not in my skeptical camp. Neither was our host, Derek McGinty. But I pointed out that while I hope these elections lead to a decent and effective government that can serve the people of Iraq--who doesn't like elections?--any realistic analysis would have to include the distinct possibility that the elections may lead to deepening the rift between Sunnis and Shiites and, thus, to intensifying the sectarian violence already under way.

Increasingly, the major issue in Iraq seems to be the Sunni-Shiite split (which predates Saddam Hussein, George W. Bush, and the war on terrorism). Interestingly, during the elections the leaders of the Sunni insurgency were able to turn off the violence. That suggests that the insurgency is not a ragtag bunch of crazy men but an organized endeavor with some internal discipline (and strategic thinking). It also suggests that Zarqawi and his al Qaeda in Iraq--still a threat--is not the main problem in Iraq. Zarqawi presumably had no interest in helping the Americans stage a successful election, yet his forces were not able to disrupt them. So if the fundamental conflict is not Zarqawi versus the Iraqi government and the Americans, what is it? It's Sunnis versus Shiites. If that is the case, then the question for the United States is rather basic: What are we doing in Iraq? Are we there to protect a predominantly Shiite (and perhaps theocratic) government, which is cozy with Iran, from an indigenous insurgency? Is it the United States' role to take sides in that fight? These are the sort of questions that Bush, Cheney and their aides duck. But more and more, they seem to be defining questions that demand answers.

In case you missed it, the post-election analysis by the Independent's Patrick Cockburn, a veteran correspondent in the Middle East, is instructive on this point. Earlier this week, he wrote:

Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly defeated.

The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities in Sunni provinces. The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence and their voting reflected that.

The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.

Islamic fundamentalist movements are ever more powerful in both the Sunni and Shia communities. Ghassan Attiyah, an Iraqi commentator, said: "In two and a half years Bush has succeeded in creating two new Talibans in Iraq."

A reminder Ghassan Attiyah, a secular democracy activist in Iraq, has in the past been funded by the international arm of the Republican party. If he believes Iraq is being Talibanized, even GOPers should be worried. Cockburn concludes his piece:

The elections are also unlikely to see a diminution in armed resistance to the US by the Sunni community. Insurgent groups have made clear that they see winning seats in parliament as the opening of another front.

The break-up of Iraq has been brought closer by the election. The great majority of people who went to the polls voted as Shia, Sunni or Kurds - and not as Iraqis. The forces pulling Iraq apart are stronger than those holding it together. The election, billed by Mr Bush and Mr Blair as the birth of a new Iraqi state may in fact prove to be its funeral.

Does that sound like "complete victory" to you?
http://www.davidcorn.com/

How can you possibly say we are losing a War, when everything W. has set out to do there is happening?