steve, lots of good points in your post...i appreciate that... here are my thoughts:
(1) suppose you have $100 cash in your account...
by no leverage i mean that you either invest $100 in qqq/ndx with no margin OR you invest only $50 in the 2x ndx profund (uopix)...if ndx goes up by 1% you gain 1% of $100 or $1...
by full leverage i mean that you either invest $100 in qqq/ndx on 100% margin OR you invest full $100 in the 2x ndx profunds (uopix)...if ndx goes up by 1% you gain 2% of $100 or $2...
so, if you invest 100% of $100 in uopix you are EFFECTIVELY investing $200 in ndx which is EQUIVALENT to an investment of $100 in qqq/ndx on full margin...you don't get margin calls but you lose money very fast if you bet wrong on the market...
that's exactly why very few traders invest 100% in uopix or invest in qqq/ndx with full margin...the others already lost their capital...<ng>
you, ajtj, and hul often invest 100% in uopix/uspix...wahz often goes on 50%-75% margin...KT does not use margin...
so, let's say the goal is 10% a month compounded with no margin/leverage or 20% a month compounded with full margin/leverage...i actually have never seen anyone achieve 20% a month compounded with either qqq/ndx on full margin or 100% invested in uopix/uspix...so the more realistic goal should likely be about 15% a month compounded achieved through a partial use of margin/leverage...this is what the best traders have been achieving historically...
(2) i have not traded recently for several reasons:
(a) i have done a very thorough re-validation of all my system signals and have significantly improved my system in several ways
(b) i have been somewhat reticent to trade in the volatile and emotional market environment due to the war
(c) i have gotten very few system signals recently
(d) and frankly, i have been aware of the fact that my trades will be immediately posted on the thread so i guess the ego aspect is present as well...<ggg>
i will definitely start trading this week, likely with 50% positions initially...my goal is still 15-20% a month until i prove to myself that this goal is not attainable...
(3) i think that managing money once you are confident in your trading results is a good idea but if i were to do it i would wait perhaps a year to see what kind of returns i am getting and what drawdowns i have experienced...
as far as options trading, very few are able to systematically generate adequate positive returns over a longer period so this area seems less attractive to me than profunds trading...
also, the returns one can get are quite dependent on the type of market (bull/bear), the portfolio size, and the assumed risk level...
steve, good luck in your trading
george
