EXPECTATIONS of a 3rd RUN
Please bare in mind, this is a very long post. It is my observations and opinion on what to expect, in the month to come. Where, my concern is placed dependent on the run's starting PPS.
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If we are to expect a peak over the $10.00 mark (which I of course would hope for) we can verify it's running steam by considering the past percentage run basis from the accumulation phase, to the peak.
If we reach between the $2.50-$3.50 mark prior to the actual run, it will assuredly go up to $8-$12.
If the accumulation phase does NOT reach $2.50, I doubt it will surpass $10.00 at all, and if it does, I would expect it to only do so briefly.
If we look at the % start of the last run, vs march, we see that the March run started at $0.29 and rose about 480% ($1.40)
The MAY run started from the $0.85ish range, so it only dropped 40% from the high in the march run to the start of the MAY run.
(total drop temporarily i think hit a low of around 55-60% before it leveled out to 0.85s)
If we assume a similar starting point for this run, 40% off the high in MAY should put us around $3.12. However, on this last run
we dipped a full 85% (estimated) from the high of 5.24. So this is a bit different than the first run, more players, more news and scare tactics.
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In my mind, it would be the healthiest for the stock to raise to $2.50+ before any real run starts, because then the hedge funds can be happy getting it to $10.00 mark, maybe even $12.00 mark without it collapsing on itself so quickly unless they want it to happen on their sell off.
So in other words, my thought is that if this run starts and it begins with major increases from under $2.50 mark, we may have a SMALLER high on the run then expected, more around the $7-$9 max.
If it snuggles higher than $2.50 before the main event... we could have some fun surprises.
Also, keep in mind that the MAY run gained a full 650% estimated from it's starting position. Just so you're aware that it increased vs 480% in march. This may be another large % increase, closer to 750-800% but that will be unlikely unless we get much more substantial news in c-ship release favor abroad.
Another thought to consider; it is possible that we get such good news that after the run up, it doesn't drop as much as we expect
(i.e. 40-50%) due to there being less fear/ scare tactics available when the 'good' news bombs hit. If this occurs i would expect up-listing, end of C-ship chat and all sorts of commotion which may shoot it up higher after a 1-3 month period of 'uncertainty'.
Regardless of what happens on this next run up, if this is to remain an OTC ticker for much longer I would expect it to fall below the $4.00 threshold before a possibility of any up-listing is mentioned. (which likely won't happen unless c-ship ending is in sight or has occurred)
If this does not happen, It would be difficult for me not to be highly optimistic as everyone else would be.
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My current expectation is that we will be between $2.00 - $2.50 when the next run begins, and, we may touch $10.00 but probably will not go over it.
(only time will tell of course)
If FNMA's price rises in the next couple of weeks then my expectation of course will change based on what I've already stated.
A simple formula to consider would be as follows: (one I am going to consider greatly when the run starts, in addition to 1-min charts, 5-days of daily charts and most importantly the news.)
Starting run Price (i.e. call it $2.00) X 5.00 (500%, a good round conservative average between the last two runs.)
so $2.00 * 5 = $10.00 max expectation
It's so simple to consider and plan for a possible maximum based on previous trends of this stock, and also based on the maximum the hedgies will likely wish to run it before dumping one last time prior to a major share price increase when a release from c-ship occurs. (maximizing what they have)
IF we make it to $2.50 prior to a run starting, it would probably be a better expectation of this as a maximum:
$2.50 * 5 = $12.50
The reason why I feel 500% is key, in addition to being a relative comparison vs the last two runs, is that hedge funds are fairly notorious for not holding too far past that area in profit gain. After all, if you make 500% profit, why hold any longer?
We also should consider that hedge funds likely loaded up at the $1.00 mark this time around, so based on my prior statement one might assume $5.00 to again be a maximum peak zone, however, with much more good news and more obvious resolution / criticism of the situation we are likely to have a larger spark of confidence, which in turn could lead to larger share price.
The key, I feel at least, is not the point where the hedgies likely purchased a majority of their shares, but rather the point where the RUN begins.
This is due to the likely consideration that hedgies do not dump after 500% profits if a mountain is 'stable' but rather, they dump when they foresee a future collapse.
Let me know if anyone else has considered this, or if you have a different view point etc. let it out. I'd like to hear why my expectations are wrong so I can re-evaluate them.
Everyone good luck and have a great night.
-Z
