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Monday, July 08, 2013 4:04:13 PM
Apple Cutting Second-Half iPhone Production, Says Wedge; China Mobile Upside
By Tiernan Ray
Wedge Partners’s Brian Blair today writes that he believes Apple has cut production volume for its iPhone across various models, including a speculated forthcoming iPhone 5S and a speculated lower-cost iPhone, to adjust to an apparent broad slowing in premium smartphone sales.
Citing lower-than-expected Q2 reports Thursday and Friday from Samsung Electronics (005930KS) and HTC (2498TW), Blair thinks Apple’s cut production as much as 20%, though he doesn’t say how he comes by his revised projection:
We believe Apple’s prior production forecast for the iPhone was in the 115-120 million range for the June to December period. However, we believe in recent weeks that Apple has trimmed forecasts for its iPhone to the 90 – 100 million unit range. We believe this number includes production for all iPhone models, including the forthcoming 5S, the 5, the 4S, as well as the low-cost iPhone. Our expectation for the low cost iPhone continues to be that Apple will repurpose the iPhone 4 with a plastic backing that will allow the handset to sell at a retail price below $250. As we head into earnings season in the coming weeks, we expect these lowered unit forecasts (along with the same from Samsung on the S4) to create an overhang for key smartphone suppliers like Qualcomm (QCOM) and Broadcom (BRCM).
Blair thinks the lower-cost iPhone will sell at China Mobile (CHL), among others, a breakthrough for Apple:
Initial production for the China Mobile model to be in the 10 million unit range for the first 30-60 days of TD-SCDMA production. China mobile currently has 730 million subscribers and represents the single biggest untapped carrier opportunity for Apple.
Blair thinks production plans for the iPad remain unchanged, and that Apple is gearing up for a new 10-inch iPad model in September.
Blair has no formal rating and target on Apple stock, but believes the shares are “attractive” at current levels.
Apple shares today are down $3.88, or 0.9%, at $413.54.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/07/08/apple-cutting-second-half-iphone-production-says-wedge-china-mobile-upside/?mod=BOLBlog
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