Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Yield to the Yields

Since early May 2013 yields have taken off. The e-wave in the 10 yr Treasury indicate June 17 to 20 was at least a wave 3, with today's move a wave 5 of the same degree. That leaves 2 or 3 more degrees of wave 4-5 to go with an upside target of 3.025% to 3.050%.

The alternate count would view the June 17 to 20 move as wave 1 in a series of wave 1-2 stairsteps. The upside would be MUCH higher that 3.050%.

Since mortgage rates are tied to yields on the 10 year Treasury, the cost of a house payment could shoot up 20% from early May 2013. With home buyers having fairly inelastic budgets, demand for houses will drop precipitously. Prices for houses will start coming down, and WAVE C down of the housing crash will be under way.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72251619353