Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[EYEBUYSTOX]

If they achieved statistically significant MOS benefit from 120 patients, they should be able to do it with 200 as well. That's why this "interim look" business gets me all worked up without further clarification. If you recall, the original number of patients for phase III anticipated before the Fargo flop was 200-300. It took a year to enroll 120 patients last time. It would take 5 years to enroll 600 patients without a partner now IMO. Knowing I'd only have to wait 2 more years for phase III data for bavi is acceptable and the $40 million in the bank makes it realistic for the company to do it on their own, not that I want them to.

But having to wait 4-5 years brings in other variables such as changes in the SOC (especially now with Breakthrough Designation), which is most-likely going to happen with PD-1 related drugs if the company doesn't act soon. That is my biggest fear. Not that bavi doesn't work, but that games by BPs with the lobbying and ability to advance pipelines faster will put us in a similar situation as what happened with Cotara. The old, "Well, that's not standard of care anymore" so lets go ahead and start phase I trials over with the new standard of care." Scary, but a real consequence of hard-balling during negotiations.