Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[DrRocker]

Sad and sobering to catch up on the board after a week of moving house. As has happened numerous times before the posts leading up to the Thursday morning PR were filled with hope and joy (from longs) as the share price crept up in anticipation of getting back on the Russel 3k and possible good front line lung trial news.
IMO Chris telegraphed the poor front line results on my call with him where the "won't move the needle" phrase was used. I promised the board I would post his E-mail confirming the use of this terminology after the front line results came out. I waited as a hopeful long not wanting to potentially compromise the company's partnering discussions in any way (you can see what good that did) Two E-mails from Chris posted exactly as they came to me on May 9th;

As I said to you part of the reason I hesitate to talk to posters on ihub is exactly what you/your buddy stated. I said FL may/may not move the needle with PARTNERSHIPS. Some may be focused solely on SL NSCLC.

Well I tried...

Chris Keenan | Senior Director, Investor Relations

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
14282 Franklin Avenue - Tustin, CA - 92780
Tel: [phone] |

The reason that FL may not move the needle on a partnership is that is it an open label trial and not as robustly designed as the SL trial which was double blind, randomized placebo controlled. But once again you do not get the full story.


Chris


Chris Keenan | Senior Director, Investor Relations

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
14282 Franklin Avenue - Tustin, CA - 92780
Tel: [phone] | Corporate: 714.508.6000 |

At the time I believed Chris was dampening any expectations I had about the front line trial results. In the call he also said they would report the results by the end of the quarter regardless of whether the 80% eventing had been achieved to be done with it. The words to be done with it troubled me at the time as that sounded like bad news they were looking to get out of the way. Looking at the PR it strikes me that is exactly what they were doing trying to bury or at least counterbalance the poor results in a mix of more positive information.
It gives me no pleasure to have accuratley predicted the front line trial results would show a lack of separation between treatment and control arms as I have lost a lot more (on paper) now. As FTM and others have clarified the separation is all that matters so the 14+ months MOS for the treatment arm means nothing. I was hopeful we would at least get the long tail effect with those responding well to the treatment getting longer lasting benefit. I am having trouble understanding how MOS could be only 14 months and how only 60% have evented some 19 months after the last patient was enrolled? Something does not add up here.
Not sure why but I am still holding my shares at this point. I have paid a hefty price for my front row seat and still hope I am not watching a train wreck (with me on the train). This stock makes me feel like the kid who gets a giant ice cream cone and is salivating in anticipation of taking the first lick only to see the ice cream tumble out of the cone and onto the ground where it gets covered in dirt (which is where I of course start crying). This is my groundhog day scenario that keeps replaying over and over. Will we ever get to taste the sweet lick of success or will it be us who gets licked in the end.
Rocker