Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Ixse]

Keith, re: do you expect INTEL to continue to trail AMD on both of those vectors [performance/power] with the new offerings? Or what else?

Until Conroe/Woodcrest AMD will continue to lead in both. In T&L Yonah leads in both until Merom.

I'm not sure how much SiGe will do for AMD. It think it's significant and might lead to roughly 10-20% higher speed or lower power (a wag ofcourse), so ~3.1GHz for DT/Server and ~2.5GHz SC T&L / ~2.1GHz DC T&L by Q4 '06. I think this is quite reasonably cautious.

So provided IPC remains roughly the same (as currently with Yonah and X2) after Merom/Conroe/Woodcrest I think that AMD will continue to lead in performance in DT/Server (except for Virtualization where it will lead by a large margin), and only slightly underperform in T&L. It might only slightly underperform in power consumption.

Hence my wag in another post today that I think that though Intel might do less worse than this year with the arrival of Yonah and Dempsey/Bensley, after Merom/Conroe/Woodcrest I think that both AMD and Intel will do well.

I actually think that only continued level of strongarming by Intel will be able to succeed to put AMD back in a corner after Merom/Conroe/Woodcrest, but I think that chances that that will happen are decreasing with the way the lawsuit is going currently. AMD apparently thinks so too because it is said to announce another new fab summer '06 already (production by '08?).

Regards,

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