Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Ixse]

Buggi, we all know that for years now in all cpu lines Intel has not lived up to hype or even internal goals for as far as frequency is concerned. I'm not sure if past mispredictions are indicative for Merom/Conroe/Woodcrest though.

Yonah's intro frequency is in line what I expected although I too thought that one bin higher was not exactly out of the question at launch (while some others thought that would be even likely because they heard so directly or indirectly from Intel itself). I didn't/don't fear Yonah that much because of several reasons:
1- It's 32b meaning it won't run the highest volume mainstream version of Windows Vista. This probably means that Turion will keep a niche but probably not grow market share anymore during most of 2006, ASP will suffer though.
2- It's relatively soon to be outdated both by Merom and DC Turion. Osbourne effect.
3- Turion doesn't have a large share now.

What I do still fear is Merom/Conroe/Woodcrest. 'Still' because their performance is unknown (32b->64b performance delta similar to K8?, not precisely known frequencies), and because AMD's rev F on a SiGe process performance is not entirely specified either. Too much unknowns yet. As you know I'm cautiously optimistic though because of very competitive cpu designs (especially DT en Server) in combination with higher fab capacity and lower costs per die because of 300mm. Intel's highly vaunted trio is late (on schedule but way behind K8). AMD's 65nm is late too, but it'll see a second mid life kicker for 90nm in added SiGe and will see the 200mm disadvantage shrink. My wags are that AMD will do well next year Intel won't do as bad as this year. Both AMD and Intel might do well in 2007.

Question: I'm not sure yet if it's likely that added SiGe is implemented from the start at fab36. Does anyone here know?

Regards,

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