It is not that obscure. If the economy is strengthening (big IF) then there is the specter of inflation looming under that rock. If the Fed exits the current QE interest rates are not held down, which also translates to inflation. If the Fed contracts its bloated balance sheet the drain of liquidity, and the overload on the markets of the mortgage securities could each pop a certain equity bubble and this makes a move of wealth from equities an increasingly strategic move. But to where, particularly if the dollar is under duress? Also, if the Fed exits and/or unwinds the huge sums on corporate balance sheets earn more just sitting, the incentive to deploy is reduced, which further squeezes the money supply and so the general economy.
On the other hand, if the Fed does not exit and unwind, but continues, then the eventual exit and unwind just become even more difficult/problematic, and of course the mountain of fiat grows endlessly making the probability that true value, as in "lack of confidence and trust" adjusted value of the dollar becomes more clearly visible to a larger circle.
With a little thought I feel it can be seen that either path could lead to an economic collapse, so imo the path that will be take is what appears to provide the most prolonged change.
All of the above spell uncertainty. Gold has always been a haven for ducking uncertainty. Presently massive efforts have been underway to prevent that shift from happening. But more is needed than artificial depression of the price of the metals. Something must happen to relieve the uncertainty and to show that either or of the possible paths is possible without dire consequences, something which to date I have not noticed being shopped around for acceptance . . . therefor uncertainty rules the day (until the desperation to prevent a rise in gold price from heightening visibility of the situation triggers more suppression).
It has been a vicious cycle for months, with a lot of negative news/situations being swept under the carpet as part of the process.
