Great discussion.
IMO, in time, 113 has a good chance of showing it's head in ALK+ and ROS1. I don't know if anyone could form an educated opinion of EGFR at this time. I do think the tolerability factor and (hopefully, what I believe) a slightly better response and duration will separate it from LDK378. LDK's numbers were not a great as I thought they would be. As Don pointed out, the fact that many can't stay on the drug is a key factor as well.
I really don't know what to make of the Chugai drug at this time, it is a bit of a wild card in my mind. I guess we will have to see what becomes of it.
In my model for 113, I have peak sales of approx $500 mil basically all ALK+ and ROS1. EGFR TBD, but $0 for now.
Your analysis reminds me of kinda how you viewed Ponatinib when it was given the black box label. I know you now have a long position. I was wondering what made you a buyer. Was it more favorable valuation, better clarity on the Pona safety profile or a combo of both? Also, did the 3 year follow up ease your mind on safety? What 12 month MMR do you expect from EPIC? I expect the safety profile to be in line with the rest of the TKI'S.
TIA
