Biotech Values

[rfj1862]

XNPT

I assume Astellas is starting in Phase I because of regulatory requirements in Japan dictating that safety studies be conducted in a predominantly Japanese population.

According to the company, over the next two quarters, we can expect 1) initiation of phase III for the gabapentin analog; 2) phase IIa results for the baclofen analog; 3) partnership for one or both drugs, either of which is likely to result in substantial up-front payments.

A 30% discount to the current price of XNPT would put the market cap around $200 million. Although always possible, I find it unlikely that this company will lose that much value unless that phase IIa for baclofen is negative.

Forgot to mention that XenoPort has an established collaboration with Pfizer, initiated in 2003.

Regarding CRME--probably not too late to buy. Presumably they will be filing in early '06, plus we have the phase IIa oral results in mid-2006 and, potentially, a partnership for the oral agent. That is, if CRME isn't purchased outright, which seems to be the fate of companies in the CV space.

If anyone has additional stock ideas, I'm listening....

John