iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

[Extreme4Reality]

When Real Bottom Comes, there will-be-no-bulls

It's humorous to see all the bubbly and joyful silver holders proclaim "yay! that's the bottom" over and over and over. When the real bottom comes, silver holders will feel so battered that they won't even comment and certainly won't be buying and won't be saying "yay, that's the bottom!"

I wouldn't touch silver (as a buy and hold) until the next official recession gets going, along with a SERIOUS crash in oil prices. Silver (and Oil) always crash in recessions. Silver crashed to $8 in the last recession (oil to $33) and silver fell to $4 in the recession before that. Recessions occur about every 4 years on average, so we're overdue.

I'm nearly 100% certain we'll dip to $14 (just in deflating the bubble), and then we'll go MUCH lower depending on the depth of the coming recession.

By the time we get there, it will be so very ugly and hopeless, that you'll likely have some very serious doubts about whether you should buy silver at all. And if you do nibble and see a bounce, there will likely be yet another crash and another. That's what bottoms look like.... It will be VERY bleak for a long time. That's when smart folks can start to buy (when almost nobody else is buying), but be mindful that it could be dead money for 5 or 10 years with NO quick rebound.

Go to Kitco and look at the historical rhodium chart.... huge bubble, followed by huge crash, followed by little bounce, then another crash, then a dead period. Notice that nobody is buying or talking about rhodium now (but they sure were during the bubble).



If you had only bought silver in recessions anytime in the past 30 years you would never have paid more than $4 - $9 for silver (including just over 4 years ago) and you would have been selling during this recent bubble.