95% chance that any top will occur later than
December 27.
In fact, in 46 of the last 57 years, the top
came in January which is 81% of the time. Of the 11
December tops, 8 occurred in the last three days of the
month. This means that based on data going back to 1948,
there is a 95% chance that any top will occur later than
December 27.
Exerpted from article below:
Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for the close
on Thursday 12/08/05
www.toddmarketforecast.com
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00
Pacific.
DOW - 56 on 350 net advances
NASDAQ COMP. - 6 on 50 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:
The great majority of you have now received our
monthly newsletter. If you haven't, please let us know.
Take the time to study the first page carefully. In it, we
make the case that there is a very strong tendency for any
rally beginning in November or December to not top out
until January. In fact, in 46 of the last 57 years, the top
came in January which is 81% of the time. Of the 11
December tops, 8 occurred in the last three days of the
month. This means that based on data going back to 1948,
there is a 95% chance that any top will occur later than
December 27.
This should give us some confidence that any decline in
the near term will not be significant and can be used for
taking on additional positions. Of course we could always
have a sharp decline near term and still come back and
make new highs in January and still meet the historical
tendencies.
The U.S. stock market tried to buck the trend in Europe
and Asia and rally on Thursday, but a 10% surge in natural
gas and a rise in oil prices made the road higher a bit
difficult.
The Dow did break the support zone that we discussed
yesterday, but two things kept us from going to a short term
sell. First, there were more advancing issues than declining
ones. Second, the CBOE put call ratio was almost 1.0.
Whenever it's this high the tendency has been for a rally the
next day.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
Initial jobless claims were reported at 327k. The
expectation was for a reading of 318k. On Friday, we get
the University Of Michigan sentiment report.
On the stock front, Toll Brothers and Veritas beat
estimates and rose 3% 10%. Rick's Cabaret had great same
store sales and jumped 10%. Papa John's guided higher and
added 6%. Fleetwood Enterprises reported a smaller than
expected loss. The stock rose 4%.
On the negative side Texas Instruments and Qualcomm
both guided higher and still lost 3% and 1%. Brinker Int'l
and American Greetings both guided lower and gave up
10% and 11%. Westwood One guided lower and stated that
the CEO will resign. The stock sank 11%. U.S. Steel was
downgraded by Deutsche Bank and lost 3%.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are
on a buy signal as of the close on April 21, 2005 at S&P
1160. Mutual fund investors are 100% invested in a growth
fund or S&P 500 Index fund of their choice.
Short term traders in the SPY and QQQQ are in cash.
Stay there for now.
For new subscribers, the QQQQ and SPY are exchange
traded funds or Spiders.
The former mimics the Nasdaq 100 and the latter mimics
the S&P 500. ---- Additionally, an m.i.t. order means
"market if touched" It means that your order becomes a
market order if the price is touched.
OTHER MARKETS
We are on a buy signal for bonds as of November 16,
2005.
We are on a sell signal for the dollar and a buy for the Euro
as of November 22, 2005.
We are on a buy signal for gold from November 17, 2005.
We remain long term positive on all major world markets,
including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany,
France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a
monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly
hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the
following publications: Barron's, Stock Market
Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator,
and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following
stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press
Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver,
British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in
Toronto, Ontario.
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