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Tuesday, May 14, 2013 9:59:27 AM
There's no delicate way to put this: The situation is so complex that no short answer exists.
On the one hand, you have a fabulously successful pair of businesses which were taken over by the government in a time of stress. This cratered the share price (some would say intentionally).
On the other hand, you have a pair of quasi-government entities which live or die at the will of the politicians who control them.
Evaluated at the business level, it's a can't miss deal: record profits, greater than 90% market share, and a very accessible price.
Unfortunately, given the political nature of the situation, a biz-only analysis falls way short. The congressians could still contrive a way to kill them, rendering your investment completely (?) worthless.
So, you can buy FMCKJ for $5/stub. Eventually it could be worth $25 (face value). Eventually it could be worth zero. Eventually it could be worth some fraction of face. Eventually it may begin to pay dividends again.
Commons are about a buck each. Where will they be in 10 years? Zero'd out by the politicians? $10?
You have to get a grasp of the entire situation (good luck!) and then determine how it fits your risk/reward profile. I will say that was easier to determine when you could get commons for $0.20 and $25 prefs for $0.50.
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