exp system

[exp]

well, i am really excited again as i just discovered the one macro ndx candle pattern that appears to have been highly reliable in the past 3 years...

there are obviously many macro candle patterns as listed in bulkowski's book but i have so far found that none of them are generally reliable enough to meet my personal standards used in my system...
however, very very surprisingly this one is: the rising wedge:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[r,a]daclynay[dc][pd20,2][J9107157,Y]&pref...

still, one has to keep in mind that in many instances one can draw consecutive rising wedges which keep getting modified as ndx moves higher and higher...
so, the rising wedge itself is NOT a valid pattern for predictive purposes...
it is only the FAILURE of a rising wedge as shown in the chart above that is a valid pattern...

now i need to do more analysis to try to incorporate this multi-day signal into my system in a manner that is consistent with the other signals and does not lower the overall system performance...
btw, the (rare) failures of this signal all occurred during the largest bear market rallies of 2000-2003 which suggests that in a bull market this signal would have limited reliability..