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Friday, May 10, 2013 6:04:22 PM
The only thing or item I'll argue that does not belong in the "split of the current revs" is Tev-Tropin. That has been a winner after TEVA converted the Antares pen. This one is not stagnant nor declining and guess what, its an injector and not a gel. And guess what they are now focused on as the lead rev driver - a home grown injector that will deliver at home methotrexate. New products do have to gain market share with incentives, etc as you state. But the subcutaneous in home injectable MTX is a different animal, isn't it. New ballgame. To me, the worry you note, will be in the rear view mirror and much less of a factor moving forward.
I think investors in Antares today, either get the story or they don't. Either they understand the shift from partnership royal based revenues to high margin home grown organic revs or not. Then there are the investors who do know this but are driven to play the stock in this transition period - in an attempt make a few pennies, nickels and dimes while time still yet permits. I firmly believe, that window of "opportunity" is soon coming to an end. That last sentence pertains to the trading scenarios we have been experiencing lately.
Btw, speaking of gels, I asked Jack about a Pop Council male birth control gel, his reply was, if they are working on a male birth control gel, they are doing it on their own.
The only gel I'm excited about right now is Ibuprofen gel. The one that is in clinical trials by Pfizer. Ibuprofen is the only over the counter medicine in its class today and the only Ibuprofen is Advil which has a market saturation that is envious. There is NO Advil gel currently available OTC. This will be the first and it will be using Antares delivery method.
Good post Grukf - thanks for stimulating my thoughts! Lastly, to go back to your very first sentence - "ATRS, current and future revenues" - to me any correlation between current and what future revs will be is or will be like apples to oranges. No comparison. Current revs generate a modest, non profit generating revs. Future revenues (while yet to be realized obviously) are being structured, modeled, formulated and ultimately marketed to exact extraction from what we are experiencing today and just as you have noted!
Have a great weekend all.
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