NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

I agree with all of this. The risk factor that seems to get the least attention from the usual cheerleaders is the likelihood that there will be one or more good competing influenza drugs (not Tamiflu) by the time Flucide gets past all the regulatory hurdles. Flucide will still be marketable but at prices far below those assumed in the "$100 a share" predictions. The additional competition is a direct consequence of the multi-year delays.

In fact if some competing drug "X" gets to market too soon that might add to the costs of getting Flucide approved, because the requirement might become, "Show that it works better than X", not "Show that it works better than Tamiflu". This could require larger and thus more expensive trials to get statistical significance.