I will take all of your variables as facts and show you simplistically how it works.
Yes you would need 400 one- month prescriptions. Patients starting in january would have three one- month prescriptions and each one of those patients, using your variables, would generate $30,000 in the first quarter revenue.
Using a simple wighted average method to determine scripts you would need to have 133 weighted average patients over the period. I.e. 1 on day 1 and 265 on March 31.
133*10,000*3 = 4,000,000 Simple math.
I don't know the pricing difference between the 45 and 15 MG tablets but don't think for a minute they are 1/3 of the price.
Now if you want to have a serious question we can talk about what your real concerns are. But using this simple example above 4 million in sales seems pretty achievable.
Also to counter any response for variables I haven't considered which would lesson the sale estimate such as patients going off the drug or patients using 15 mg vs 45 you should note that there was a lot of initial uptake on day one of the launch due to the compassionate use patients switching over.
