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Re: Spanky227 post# 9173

Tuesday, 04/23/2013 9:44:07 PM

Tuesday, April 23, 2013 9:44:07 PM

Post# of 46513
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions.

From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf

Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B

Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B

So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.

Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B

Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years

RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M

RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M

Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M

Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M

Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M

If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B

Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).

RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B

Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B

To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash

Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.