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Re: trunkmonk post# 1131

Wednesday, 04/17/2013 6:41:55 PM

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 6:41:55 PM

Post# of 1342
I'm gonna disagree. Electric cars aren't new. They have been around for 100 years. Like then and now AFFORDABLE Batteries and not energy dense enough to replace what we think of as a car. The weight of a car to its passengers just doesn't work.

E-Bikes, e-scooters, e-motorcycles I think will be huge, especially in developing markets but you simply cannot expand Moore's law to a manufacturing industry. Moore's law works for chips as the key is knowledge not the actual material costs. Go back 100 years and you will see incremental improvement in batteries at the improved rate of 3-7% year not 2x in 18 months.

Some of the cool Aluminum Air batteries just announced in a lab won't be ready for mainstream market for 10 years plus.

Go look at the JCI powerpoint I posted a few back and look at their projections of the marketplace. Traditional ICE engines will add start/stop and micro-hybrids but not go pure EV. The price isn't there.

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