ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[tryoty]

Maybe things are just as we have been told, it is taking time to get the shares credited to all of the accounts and the funds from those accounts to the transfer agent. That indicates a very broad participation, which is positive.

Another potential positive scenario is that they are finalizing something that will put smiles on the faces of all shareholders that supported the offering... that could be just about anything.

The bottom line is it could go either way, and I don't take Chrome's support statement as an indication that it will go badly. IMO, the worst case scenario is that the offering fell short of the $18M required and they are feverishly working a private placement to cover the gap. That's my Armageddon scenario because that placement would likely be at a discount to this already pathetic share price, but even it has a silver lining... they will have the $18M to continue the exploration of their blocks.

Also...

- There could be a JDZ phase II announcement. I don't see this happening yet. Sinopec still has 17 months before they are forced to disclose. Perhaps their silence was and is an attempt to starve our minnow out of the JDZ. "oil and gas were found in the quantities expected" comes to mind.

- There could be a partner announced in the STP-EEZ. I think we have had enough guidance from the company that this isn't likely, but it is still possible.

- We have been told repeatedly that they are negotiating with potential partners in both Chad and Kenya. This is the highest probability in my opinion.

- We have been told that they are bidding on other properties. Management may think announcing a win will boost the share price making those that supported the company glad they did. This scenario doesn't work for me unless they announce a new property as part of a consortium that brings with it a carrying operator.

Anything is possible.

What is key here is that this offering must be successful... meaning they get the funds they need AND the participants see gains in their investment, if they ever want to raise funds in the future. Failure in either or both of the above would be the final nail in the company's coffin. Given the absolute importance of this offering being successful as defined by the two points above, I am willing to give them ample time to insure its success.