Dear Kenny and Dave,
Yes, it is true that there are 1,000,000,000 shares authorized and at the current time, there are no other ways of gaining the money to pay the salaries and other obligations than issuing more shares (IMO).
As I understand, there is only a minor change in the number of shares issued, whereas the number of shares outstanding has increased from app. 28,000,000 to 200,700,000 (p. 16) in the last year. Furthermore, a number of shares have been reserved for future obligations, such as acquisition of land, warrants for employees, consultants, etc. and then some convertible debt.
So if I'm correct (I too do not know so much about the financials in the companies), then app. 450M (app. 201M + 245M, p. 16) of the 1000M are "spoken for" and there is still 550M shares left. If we take the last year with lots of new activities and expenses (new employees, testing, etc), they "used" app. 173M shares (app. 28M shares to 200.8M shares) for salaries, etc.
I agree that it will be difficult if they have to finance the construction of the plants with these shares (as I have another stock that is trying), but therefore it is extremely good news when we hear more about the bonds. My assumption/hope is that the plan is that salaries, etc. also should be covered with the 175M USD from the bonds and in this way, we could soon avoid more dilution of the shares.
My guess is that, if they have the bond money in June, they have spent something like 150M shares (quite possibly less as the PPS is better than it was most of 2012) to keep the business running. Whether or not all shares reserved for acquisitions, warrants, etc will be used is a good question, but if yes, then there would be something like 500-600M shares outstanding.
So in other words, with the bond money, I assume that there will be no more need for dilution. I wondered if anybody agrees with that?
So the good question is when to start expecting income? I do not remember exactly, but it should be a rather short time frame from the start of construction of the plant to actual production - does anybody remember the time frame? My guess/hope would be Q4 2013 or Q1 2014, if all goes according to the plan.....
As always, I'm long in BION. If the PPS falls down to 0.10-0.12, I'll be buying more (possibly also at 0.14). I have no idea about targets, but 25 USD sounds nice :)
What I imagine and thus pictourise is that they "soon" will have 6 plants producing app 750,000 T Urea per year. The price of Urea is still above 400 USD per ton, which according to my calculator, would give an annual revenue of app. 300M USD. If somebody knows something about calculation of target in comparison to projected revenues, maybe we could make a guess, based on these numbers? Possibly we could expect this income (and possibly more for other still unknown plants) from 2015...
Hmmm, due to lack of better things to do, I tried to calculate a Target for 2015, based on 300M in revenue in 2015 and 600M shares. The P/E (40) I took from RNF, which as I understand is a company selling N fertilizer....so the target for 2015 is (300/600)*40 = 20 USD......if we are only at 500M outstanding shares, the target would be 24 USD, so very close to Kenny's projection :)
If we "just" get Hardee plant up and running to 2014, the target would be: (50/500)*40 = 4 USD.
So the upside is EXTREME! IMO!
Everything IMO!
GLTA!
