Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)

[pete807]

They have plenty of product to cover the shutdown as they spoke to the issue in the conference call, Built up inventory ahead. Distribution could be very good and nearly the same as the one for Q4 2012 because the payout for the April shutdown period is in August... for Q2. Also the retail gas price during Q1 went up $1 based on WTI benchmark and not the Bakken crude which remains an advantage for NTI geographically. Plus they have their cost hedged forward at a +20 per barrel even into 2014. Their first payout in November was for only two months, August and September. It was $1.48. They went public as an MLP on July 31. In their prospectus with the S-1 they say that 1st and 4th quarters are similar in fuel demand. and the other 2 quarters are larger. The situation of abundant Bakken and Canadian crude keeping price low in the upper Padd ll region wont change anytime soon. ND production continues to rise. Infrastructure (pipelines) takes a long time to permit, then build.