Wednesday, April 03, 2013 6:43:35 AM
How much will Worlds get?
ATVI revenue last year $4.8B
Assume 50% US Rev since only US Rev would be in play. So $2.4B total. COD & WOW assume 50% of that since there are dozens of games these 2 are by far the largest so it could be over 50% but just to be safe assume 50%. So $1.2B Rev for this case.
Typical Running Royalty is 1% - 5% we will assume 3%. $1.2B x 3% = $36M/year.
Since WDDD is going for willful infringement that triples or "trebles" the amount to $108M/Yr at current levels. The patents are good till 2018 and would go back 6-8 years. So a safe estimate for previous 6 years figure lower revenue 6 years ago compared to today I get a safe # of $500M. Future revenues would be higher than today's # so figure $500M for future RR. This totals $1B.
This is only based on ATVI's COD & WOW. It's safe to say that most if not all MMORP games would be included in future suits so ATVI's total can easily reach $1.5B.
ATVI is only 33% of the total MMORPG industry. So using these #'s is safe to assume WDDD could end up going after well over $3B in total damages/royalties.
I think once the Markman hearing is successful that ATVI will settle with WDDD for some amount very quickly for approx $500M. They don't want to go to court and be on the hook for over $1B so they will settle shortly after Markman.
After settlement WDDD will file against up to 10 other infringers including other gaming companies such as EA, MSFT, ZNGA and others. Also they will go after social sites such as FB and LNKD.
The final amounts when the smoke clears can truly be huge. It won't be long before the street takes notice of WDDD and the price gets inline with the possibilities. Buyers today could easily be siting on 20-30 bagger in just 12-18 months. I am and will be buying as much as I can at these levels before the next leg kicks in.
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