Thanks for asking. I hope this answer helps…
1. What do you believe will be the driver for Inovio to be finally taken seriously from an investment/rising share price standpoint?
There are two major events that will cause that to happen, and it may take both to really move the bar.
First good Phase 2 trial data for any of the ongoing trilals will really move the bar.
The second is a good partnership with a major Pharma.
The way I always think of it is good data could run the stock to 1.50 to 2.00 then a follow on with a major Pharma could double it. This is just me thinking, not crunching numbers. It is hard to do that really on just phase 2 and Pharma partnership. The partnership will give some real numbers, and you can make some projections from that when it happens.
Ino is quite well respected in many small institutions and in the science community it is truly very respected as is Joseph and David.
2. What is your timeframe for Inovio's share price to rise significantly? You have had your money tied up for a very long time with little appreciation. I hope we are not talking about another 13 years...
Investing in private equity is more a marriage then an investment. So the time frame is not a problem from that stand point. Now that the company is public, the time frames I am willing and able to wait get much shorter.
I look at events; I do not expect any major changes without them. So we look at the Phase results and when they come out. So in the next few months we see Phase 2 results, and Ino is trying to have a major Pharma deal closed by June. So if everything comes up roses, you could easily be sitting on $5 by July. I am concerned about ChronTech data bringing down Ino price if it is negative. Especially since Ino has little to do with the drug.
Much of my money has been tied up, but not with little appreciation. I have made several million dollars off of my Ino so far, but some of that is due to being involved in the bridge financing of their Korean entity. I just last week exercised some warrants from 2003 for 2.5 cents, and I am obviously positive on those. If you add up the total investment and warrants I am sitting about even on my Inovio investment. I am way profitable (500% in 6 months) on my Korean bridge financing. I also invested in VGX animal health which can be considered negative for now. The company will start new private capital raises for animal health soon, so that should start moving new drug approval forward for GHRH which will help a lot there. So over all Joseph has taken great care of his long term share holders. My interview with him covers much of this in some detail. The next installment will be released on Monday.
3. In a perfect world scenario, in your estimation, what do you realistically expect for returns in the next 1, 3, and 5 year time frames?
Well if it is perfect, that means good phase data on ChronTech and 2 INO drugs in the next 3 to 5 months and a good partnership deal with big Pharma. You could easily see $10 a share then. Lets say there is a pull back to $7 then you would see an easy $10 end of the year. If more great news happens, 15-20 without the hype factor that can do crazy things.
I think a more honest assessment is we get good and bad new over the year. Just 1 good phase 2 with the drug continuing in to phase 3 and a good Pharma deal I think would put the stock at $3 to $7 for the year. That is as far out as I normally think.
If you continue that out to your other time frames, you can get $10-$12 in year three, $19 to $25 in year 5, but again this is without any of the hype that would have to be present and push it higher. The truth is this is an educated guess.
The only drug I have a better feeling about in Phase trials is the flu vaccine. There are some reasons that I cannot relate, that make me believe it has a better chance of success than any normal drug of success. HIV I like better than the normal 99% chance of failure as well.
The most important thing I can say here is that Joseph is simply awesome. He is both business savvy and knows the science better than almost everyone in the world. He created much of it himself. David is amazing too. This team drives the company, and the rest of the team is world class, and better than most major pharmas have.
The science is top notch. I have talked to researchers at the NIH personally about both Joseph and David, and the company’s technology. I have attended biotech conferences and vaccine conferences (Singapore 2009, Washington DC 2009-2010) and I have discussed the company and its founders with many top notch scientists and biotech CEOs from the world over. I have never heard a negative comment about the company.
I was in Korea 7 times in 6 months during the Korean take over of Dong Il fabric (this became VGXI) and had similar experiences with scientists and business people there. Not to mention government people at the cabinet level.
I have seen Joseph turn the company from what should have been failure to a viable international company with an animal health division.
