Thursday, March 28, 2013 9:35:41 PM
Northam - right, you are.
The long term model (A below) is 13 for 13 weeks in 2013!
I am still leaning toward shifting to model B below (Predictor >2008 above) beginning next week (14). Here is what I am thinking for the near term:
(Next) Week 14 - Beginning of quarter/month buying ($SPX positive) early in the week. This will set our first half top but not the top for the year. Then we begin our descent to ultimately close the $SPX negative for the week.
Week 15 - The last week for tax selling. Most will want to wait until the last minute to sell. That will be the Friday of week 15. Also, earnings announcements will be in full force. Another negative $SPX close.
Week 16 - Bad earnings/Italy could very well break the model (B) here by pushing the $SPX to a negative close week 16.
Weeks 17 - 22 - The final flush to a low in the first week of June. We then rise from week 25 (with some dips along the way) through EOY to achieve those outlandish targets GS and the others are setting at 1600+.
Consensus among most analysts/pundits I follow is that Q2 is going to bring acutely heightened volatility. The $VIX gained 76% between March 26 and May 18, 2012.
T
The long term model (A below) is 13 for 13 weeks in 2013!
I am still leaning toward shifting to model B below (Predictor >2008 above) beginning next week (14). Here is what I am thinking for the near term:
(Next) Week 14 - Beginning of quarter/month buying ($SPX positive) early in the week. This will set our first half top but not the top for the year. Then we begin our descent to ultimately close the $SPX negative for the week.
Week 15 - The last week for tax selling. Most will want to wait until the last minute to sell. That will be the Friday of week 15. Also, earnings announcements will be in full force. Another negative $SPX close.
Week 16 - Bad earnings/Italy could very well break the model (B) here by pushing the $SPX to a negative close week 16.
Weeks 17 - 22 - The final flush to a low in the first week of June. We then rise from week 25 (with some dips along the way) through EOY to achieve those outlandish targets GS and the others are setting at 1600+.
Consensus among most analysts/pundits I follow is that Q2 is going to bring acutely heightened volatility. The $VIX gained 76% between March 26 and May 18, 2012.
T
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