Len, this post is more of a cumulative of what you said yesterday.
1) First I hope we see Russell 700, by the end of the year, it has a chance of happening, but I wouldn't bet on either way right now to me it looks 50-50.
2) Now, Len in the context you were saying this I don't disagree, but if you actually believe this statement in our real life portfolios, not only would I disagree with you, but I would have evidence to back it up. "What is the point in being invested in a sideways market?" Now you know although I have not been as bearish as you, I've also had a significant amount of cash all year, and right now my cash level of 65%, is probably pretty close to my average cash position for the year if it was averaged out. Whether or not, the market makes new highs at this point is irrelvant in my opinion, me and you were both wrong for going this much cash at that time.
Now I'm up around 18% from March 7th, so I don't know about you but about 35% of my portfolio invested, and for my total portfolio to be up 18% in 8 months, I'm going to go out on a limb and say I would have been up significantly higher percentage if I was fully invested this year. Secondly why we were wrong is the Value Microcap index was only up around 20% in March, and now is currently up around 65%, heck I don't know about you but that sounds like making money to me. My point is me & you were both wrong on our calls, whether the markets make new highs or not, because we in all likelihood would have had significant higher portfolios sums if we stood fully invested. On the other hand I'm not regretting what I did, and if I had my decision to do over again, not knowing the answers to what happened I would probably do the same thing again, but it is clear to me that me & you, and anyone else who has been in big time cash positions all year, has been completely wrong, with our timing, because we probably left big percentages on the table. Just one mans humble opinion, but I Like to admit when I'm wrong, and it clear to me that our strategy failed to yield anywhere near the best returns, but I still rather be safe then sorry, so that's why I did what I did.
AI
