This needs to be posted on here. Not my work but a great post.
Meach2
Tuesday, March 26, 2013 4:17:46 PM
Re: None
Post # of 57763
A Logical Analysis of BMSN Current/Previous Happenings
We will do this in the simplest easiest way possible, since that is the most effective way to express an idea.
We will break it down by points.
1) BMSN IS DILUTING HARD.
Truth. It is. Why? Where is our money going? Oh no! the sky is falling!
Nope, still looks like its up there, just raining a little.
reasoning:
Lets use rough estimates... 2 million in debt.... what, like 800 dollars cash? that is pathetic. That is a bad looking quarterly for a company... However, this is a START-UP biotech(and the start up is going to be over in the next couple months), hence why share prices are so low, it will be VERY profitable in the future(to say it is approved and effective). Nonetheless, CLINARTIS costs a large amount of cash per every step of the way along the path of FDA approval, and with no cash, they need to make cash.... What do they do to fund this? Dilute their shares and sell at a high previous to ACCEPTANCE of ORPHAN DRUG STATUS AND FDA APPROVAL, thus they have the cash IN PLACE when it hits(to fund clinical trials as well!), and are not determented by waiting for funding. In the long term, by this fast tracking funding strategy ( as well as the opportunity to buy HEAVILY CHEAPED SHARES ), it will make BMSN more profitable faster for us when the approval hits.
2) BMSN IS A SCAM
Ugh... this one just makes me sick. Really? Do you really think they incurred millions of dollars in debt, are upgrading to the OTCQC market, filing to the SEC, integrated with other companies through partnerships (many of those partners have worked with other legitimate and passed FDA approval to become HIGHLY profitable). All of these things they are doing, all of these PR events, all of this waiting.... THAT IS PART OF BUREAUCRATIC PROCESS. North America is in LOVE with it. It is a drug so the government touches it. THINGS TAKE LONGER.
The worst scam in which is happening with BMSN was the posters in the previous weeks stating that the FDA approval PR would come through before the IND number. This is untrue. The IND number is a 6 step process, the 6th recieving it. After 30 days of recipt the company is free to persue studies freely until which time the FDA makes up its mind basically.... If things go exceptionally well in that time, with no mishaps, it will turn a green light if they are on the fence.
Also, on that point, if you look at the professionals involved with the team, you will see that they have excellent standings and credentials. Im quite certain upstanding members of society with so many prestigious positions would be willing to destroy that for a few million followed by jail time because of a stock scam.
You decide in the end, but PR is happening, there are specific events and dates, everything is becoming current and in order to FDA to approve, all of the paperwork must be in place (which has been tidied up nicely :) )
3. WHEN WILL WE KNOW IF IT IS APPROVED OR NOT!?
Well, you can at least know if it is declined before April 15th ( Rough estimate ). The IND number PR was posted on the 8th, and giving it an extended period of delays due to government fingers, that is a little over 30 days from that date.
Nonetheless, as stated in the previous statement;
after the 30 days of waiting from the 8th, roughly april 15th, they can start research without approval. The FDA still has say at this point about whether it is approved or dissaproved, however, once it gets to this point I don't think it will be dissaproved.
In under 3 weeks probably, short answer.
4.How did the prices drop so badly!?
-Bad advice
-People not doing DD
-Scam advice
-People posting misinformation
-Dilution
-panic selling
-The price needed to go down for the larger investors to get in
-etc etc.
DO YOUR RESEARCH, BE IN THE KNOW, AND THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN.
5. What if it fails...!!
It might.
It would make this a VERRRRRRRRRYYYY long term investment, and you would probably never get your money back. (this is the truth)
Its a gamble. Honestly, I would say 70% approval for orphan drug status, 85% fda approval (just some random stats I pulled off a FDA related website in a related field of study).
The risk-reward ratio is great.
It might fail.
The payoff is worth the risk IMO.
6. So, mind reader... What will happen?
I don't know. I'm assuming this is the bottom, or maybe another .0005 lower.... but we're close.
Anyways, my assumptions are as follows... the bottom will hit tomorrow or the day after, after that building towards FDA release ( and the big guys have all gotten in and secured a piece of their pie ), the prices will begin to approach 2cents in the next two weeks thereafter.
Once news of FDA approval hits, we are looking at 5cents thereafter, and perhaps more (if we're lucky)... but as for every phase of clinical trials, it will be an increase.... Increase plateau, increase plateau.
Just my humble opinions from a guy who has done ALOT of research on BMSN.
