1 in 20 is my estimate of the chance of Treaty hitting commercial oil in San Juan #3. The logic behind my estimate was set out in my Post #51469. This in my opinion based on analysis.
For your information at least 11 wells were drilled in the Spanish Lookout area before BNE struck commercial oil. BNE were exploring from 2002 and the Spanish Lookout field was dicovered in 2005. Before drilling BNE ran extensive seismic surveys in the area to help them know where to drill. After the discovery they then drilled 2 more wells before declaring the field commercial and putting it on production. These facts are based on my examination of the well and seismic maps from the Geology and Petroleum Division of the Government of Belize.
The history of oil exploration in Belize is.....
The first exploration well in Belize was drilled in 1956 by Gulf Oil in the Yalbac area in Cayo District. Between 1956 and 1982, 41 exploration wells were drilled by major oil companies like Gulf, Philips, Anschutz, Chevron, shell, Esso and Placid. From 1982 to 1997, only nine further exploration wells were drilled by independent companies like Spartan, Central Resources, Lucky Goldstar, Dover and Bright Hawk. The exploration wells drilled in Belize before 1997 found some oil shows but there were no commercial discoveries from these 50 wells. All these companies left Belize and have no returned. Between 1997 and 2000 there was a pause in activity. Then in 2000 a new Petroleum Act was made law which opened the way for BNE (concession signed 1 Feb 2003) and other companies (including Princess Petroleum Ltd concession signed 12 Oct 2007) to start exploring again. All facts based on my research.
Treaty does not have an oil concession in Belize, it is operating under an Option Agreement on the onshore part of the Princess Petroleum Concession in onshore Belize. Fact based on my research.
