I happen to personally love this stock and holding for long term.
However, regarding all the Nostradamouses making predictions on this board: I don't believe that anyone here has the clairvoyance to predict future prices unless s/he's Ms.Cleo charging $2.99 per minute. IMHO, it's not possible to be able to LEGALLY beat the market other than sheer luck plus being a solid profitable company. I am willing to bet that most ppl who "claim" to have made it huge did so by more of a luck thing instead of Rumanujan-mathematical-knowledge-thing or a clairvoyance-thing. It's obviously not from a divine power or any extensive knowledge claimed. If they continued, it will average down to the index-fund or worse... but not better.
Note: I differentiate between "making profit" in the long run vs "beating the market". Any idiot can make a profit in the long run if he sticks his cash into an index fund, 8% ROI yearly average over the next decade or so. however beating this average in the immediate future on a consistent basis is virtually not possible.
IMHO, it's impossible to beat the market with any reliable method because the more accurate you try to get the less exact you are able to know about it's other information: the famous uncertainty principle. We should probably not intermix atomic science with stock valuation but the idea itself is similar to get the point across: The two seemingly incompatible theories can be compared to each other precisely because they are both based on statistics and probabilities.
It's simply impossible to predict immediate future stock prices AND know exactly when you can take that profit if there was any money made *legally*. Neither pumping psychology, charting trends, extensive research on the business, or from volume trends, 50dma/200dma crossovers, trends, splits does any better in the immediate future as compared to investing in the index fund inself.
You could, however, make money off a series of positive press releases, but this too you have no control over. Furthermore, a a never ending series of positive presses could indicate that something's too good to be true.
Any apparent prediction is merely a temporary effect: partly because you will never be able to tell when the knife is about to fall through but mostly due to the fact that the intrinsic price of the stock is already built into its current value.
For example, Bob thinks that a stock is really worth $10 even though it's trading at $1 right now. However, it's trading at $1 due to other lacking factors such as it not being well known or p/e ratio simply being low. Compare this to GOOGLE shares which is trading at much higher prices yet still go higher due to so many people believing that it could go higher.
Your subpenny stock is trading at penny levels because it is really worth penny at this point. At every stage the stock price is intrinsically built into its current value. It does take a greater fool to make huge profits.
Some will say, "If the news hits for XYZ stock and products come rolling out, then it will be game-over". Yes, true, but this is the same with everything else. The fact remains that XYZ can not make a product yet, for example, would be what's keeping the price below penny levels. IMHO, it's all relative and lacks a definitive pattern, like flipping a coin.
Still, I remain optimistic and hope that the coin flips in our favor.
AI
