Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[freethemice]

RRdog,
As you know, the final MOS for first-line NSCLC is what matters here. I am curious as to why your
estimate for the increase in MOS seems to have been reduced from previous estimates. I have learned
from the pancreatic trial that using just the time since the enrollment closed is not a good indicator of
the final MOS number. Throw in the time between when 50% and 70-80% of the patients have died (maturing
of the data) and the estimate for MOS can be off by quite a bit. My guesstimate is that the 50% level was
reached at the end of 2012, and we are now in the maturing phase. So my guess is for a MOS of 15-16 months.
Assuming the control MOS is close to the mean of past control arms (about 10 months) I estimate about a
50% increase in MOS. That is the best I can do with such a lack of data as we have.