1. Gov support and fnf div seen as net investment
I think likely. It's only a matter of time before our $5t is added to the Treasury's book, so I think it wants us off asap. The four horsemen were concerned enough that they wrote a mini-bill requiring congressional approval before selling the seniors (ie, the GSE's). A sale will not happen until taxpayers are reimbursed in full, ie, net investment.
2. Fnf preferreds being paid out at par
Absolutely. It's only a matter of time.
3. Conservatorship ending within the next 2 years
"The conservatorship is a statutory process designed to preserve and conserve our assets and property, and put the company in a sound and solvent condition" (from Fannie's '08 10k)
Given our "sound and solvent condition", if we are still in conservatorship in two years I will predict that a lawsuit would have been filed one year earlier. The conservatorship will end when net zero is obvious.
4. Common getting paid
79.9% warrants and $189b of potentially converted seniors, and maybe us too. I doubt it. They may continue to exist, but even so I see a 1/100 split, at least.
5. Fnf as a going concern after conservatorship
They're a going concern now.
6. Revalue of dta
I doubt the Treasury approves its usage, although if that's true, why did the board request it. They ain't dopes, but maybe they're just sick of it all.
7. Price run up caused by trader collusion.
Stop reading "Joe Stocks". He played this same game with HLSH, easily my best investment in 20 years. He gets scared, sells early, then instigates instead of congratulating those who held.
Any market maker creating a $50m position in these low trading preferreds, which he would have done to have the past two days effect, would have been fired before market close today.
