Aiming, I think Daviddal's speculation that a 3-way mega deal is responsible for the TURNS trial delay is perhaps some wishful thinking on his part. The real reason for the delay probably has to do with continued wrangling between Organon and TURNS/NIMH over who controls the database, as was outlined in that Wall Street Journal article.
Abksmin's idea seems to be that there could be a mega deal cooking, but it will be a long drawn out process since the BP will naturally want to advance only the best compound - CX-717, instead of Org-24448 (drawn out since Cortex owns CX-717, while Organon owns the Schizo/Depression indication rights).
Before talking about 3 or 4-way "mega deals" however, we first need to see the Phase 2a data, since these results will demonstrate just what we have with CX-717, and are the key prerequisite for any BP deal, regular or mega. The way I see it, there's a very high probability that the results will be on the positive side, the question being just HOW positive (ambiguous, decent, good, really good, phenomenal, etc)? If ADHD kicks butt (which is quite possible considering the high dose is 800 mg BID), then Cortex may get an acceptable offer right away from a BP with a special interest in ADHD. Stoll would then have to decide whether to accept that offer or wait a month or two for the AD and/or Shift Work results in hopes of an even better offer from a BP interested in those indications. However, if ADHD bombs out because the trial design was flawed (for example the 800 mg BID causes a ton of dropouts, and 200 mg BID is too low to show effect), then we'll have to rely only on the AD and Shift Work data to attract a BP partner. So everything depends on how strong the data is for each indication - that will ultimately determine the extent of BP interest.
The good thing is that we'll start getting this data soon, in January (ADHD), and it's going to be fun to watch this unfold (also somewhat nerve wracking). Clear activity in ADHD, and this stock could really start moving. Longs and shorts will be taking their positions in the days and weeks leading up to the results, so the YH board should get lively. As thinly traded as Cortex is, a relatively small number of individuals or a hedge fund or two could temporarily manipulate the price downward right before the results (we've seen this type of activity before). I'll be keeping at least some dry powder available for such a scenario.
